New York City lowers 2025 visitor forecast by 3 million
The revision comes just two months after a record-setting forecast, highlighting how swiftly travel sentiment has shifted
New York City has sharply revised its 2025 tourism forecast, cutting expectations by 3 million visitors just two months after projecting a record-breaking year. The adjustment reflects a rapid shift in global travel sentiment toward the U.S., driven by geopolitical tensions and policy concerns. While domestic tourism is expected to see a modest dip, the steepest decline is in international arrivals - particularly from Western Europe and Canada.
Key takeaways
- Forecast downgrade: NYC Tourism + Conventions now projects 61.4 million visitors in 2025, down from February’s forecast of 64.4 million.
- International travel hit hardest: Overseas visitor projections dropped from 14.1 million to 12.1 million.
- Domestic travel also slips: U.S. traveler forecasts fell to 52 million, down 1 million from earlier estimates.
- Global sentiment impact: The decline is linked to negative global perception of the U.S. and policy issues such as tariffs.
- European declines: March data shows significant drops in visits from major European markets: Germany (-28.2%), UK (-14.3%), Western Europe overall (-17.2%).
- Long-term outlook: Recovery in international travel to NYC may not begin until 2027–2029.
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