U.S. air demand weakens as global travel continues to climb

Domestic slowdown contrasts with steady international growth heading into the holiday season

U.S. domestic air travel demand fell for the second consecutive month in September, even as international and global air traffic continued to expand. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported that most of the industry’s overall growth was driven by international routes, highlighting a growing divergence between the U.S. market and the rest of the world.

Key takeaways

• U.S. demand decline: Domestic U.S. air traffic fell 1.7% year over year in September, following a smaller 0.2% dip in August — the only major market showing consecutive declines.
• Capacity stagnation: U.S. capacity rose just 0.1% from a year earlier, while the load factor dropped 1.5 points to 80.2%, the lowest among major domestic markets.
• Global growth driven by international routes: Total global air demand grew 3.6% year over year, with international routes accounting for about 90% of that growth.
• Regional divergence: North America was the only region with an overall air demand decline (down 0.1%), while Europe and other regions posted gains between 2.9% and 6.2%.
• Asia-Pacific leads recovery: Carriers in the Asia-Pacific region recorded the highest international demand growth at 7.4%, with load factors improving to 83.6%.
• Domestic softness beyond the U.S.: India’s domestic traffic fell 0.7%, while Brazil led domestic growth with a 12.1% increase. Overall domestic demand rose just 0.9% globally.
• Outlook: IATA expects continued capacity expansion into the year-end holidays, with November schedules showing a 3% increase in available seats compared with last year.

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