U.S. business travel recovery expected to gain strength after 2025

Leisure still leads for now, but major events and economic stability could shift momentum later in the decade

U.S. business travel is showing modest recovery in 2025, with stronger momentum expected later in the decade. While domestic leisure travel continues to lead in the short term, business and international travel are projected to gain ground as economic conditions improve and major global events boost demand.

Key takeaways

• Muted short-term growth: Domestic business travel spending is expected to rise just 1.4% in 2025 compared to 2024, lagging behind leisure travel’s 1.9% projected increase.
• Inbound decline: International travel to the U.S. is forecast to fall 3.2% in spending and 6.3% in visits next year, driven largely by a sharp drop in Canadian arrivals.
• Total travel spending: Overall U.S. travel expenditure is projected to grow 1.1% to $1.35 trillion in 2025.
• Long-term rebound: Business travel is expected to outpace leisure growth between 2027 and 2029 as business investment strengthens and economic stability returns.
• Event-driven lift: The 2026 FIFA World Cup and 2028 Los Angeles Olympics could push inbound travel to record highs later in the decade.
• Ongoing risks: Prolonged visa processing times, higher visa fees, and general economic uncertainty may slow the anticipated recovery.

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