U.S. Travel forecast confirms normalizing of leisure travel demand

Though the surge experienced in the last year is starting to moderate, the segment is expected to remain resilient in coming quarters

The U.S. Travel Association released its biannual forecast for travel to and within the United States through 2026, showing a normalized rate of growth in the domestic leisure travel sector after months of elevated demand.

Key takeaways

• Domestic leisure travel is expected to remain strong, but with normalized rates of growth (around 2%) in 2023 and 2024. Volume is expected to grow faster year-over-year (YOY) than inflation-adjusted spending in 2024 and beyond;
• Both volume and spending in domestic business travel is expected to grow - albeit more slowly - largely due to economic conditions. Business travel volume is not expected to recover to 2019 levels until 2025;
• The inbound travel forecast was upgraded due to strong demand from the Canadian market, as well as stronger expectations from key overseas markets such as Brazil. Year-over-year, inbound travel volume is projected to grow 31% in 2023 and 18% in 2024.

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