Unpacking the $15 trillion opportunity in leisure travel

Leisure travel is entering a powerful growth curve, driven by emerging-market demand, younger travelers, and shifting travel rituals, according to a new report by the Boston Consulting Group

BCG projects a dramatic surge in global leisure travel, forecasting total spending to more than triple—from about $5 trillion today to roughly $15 trillion by 2040. This boom is supported by fast-growing travel activity worldwide, especially from emerging economies, changing traveler profiles, and evolving preferences. The research incorporates trends from 2014‒2024 and survey data spanning 11 countries, offering a comprehensive view of where the industry is headed.

Key takeaways

Leisure travel spending set to skyrocket

• Spending is expected to grow at ~8% annually until 2029, then ~7% through 2040.
• Domestic travel leads the charge, jumping from ~$4.1 trillion to $11.7 trillion by 2040. Regional travel will increase from $0.71 trillion to $2 trillion, and international from $0.425 trillion to $1.4 trillion.

Emerging markets emerging as powerhouses

• Countries such as China, India, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam, and others are driving most growth.
• In China, spending across domestic, regional, and international travel is projected to grow by ~10–11% annually
• India is expected to see domestic spending rise ~12% annually, with regional at ~8% and international at ~10%

Evolving traveler demographics & behaviors

• Millennials and Gen Z are dominant: they travel more, spend more, and seek different experiences.
• Solo travel is gaining mainstream appeal—18–39% of travelers report going alone.
• “Bleisure” (combining business and leisure) is now normal in many emerging markets—70%+ plan to mix travel types—versus 15–30% in the US/Europe

Destinations diversifying

• Traditional favorites—cities, beaches, nature—remain popular.
• Demand is now expanding into curated and purpose-driven offerings: wellness retreats, spiritual journeys, cultural adventures
• Example: Qatar and Saudi Arabia’s Qiddiya are using tech—AI, AR/VR, targeted marketing—to position themselves as next-gen travel hubs

Strategic implications for travel businesses

• Capitalize on rising domestic travel by enhancing local offerings and infrastructure.
• Engage digitally savvy younger travelers through mobile-savvy, socially conscious channels.
• Enable flexible travel types like solo, wellness, and bleisure to cater to evolving expectations.
• Use emerging tech—AI chatbots, VR previews, targeted messaging—to personalize the traveler journey.

Get the full report at The Boston Consulting Group