A 2040 travel outlook by Google and Deloitte

How shifting demographics, emerging destinations, and digital disruption are redefining global tourism

In a landmark study by Deloitte and Google, the global travel industry’s trajectory through 2040 is mapped using billions of search queries, 90,000+ data points, and decades of tourism data. With travel rebounding post-COVID, the research outlines critical shifts in source markets, destination dynamics, and traveler behavior. The findings offer a strategic framework for travel and hospitality stakeholders to future-proof their offerings in light of new technology, rising global middle classes, and climate-driven constraints. By 2040, 2.4 billion trips are projected globally, with Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and the Caribbean poised for significant gains, and travel becoming more digital, personalized, and purpose-driven.

Key takeaways

Macro trends & projections

• Travel rebounds: Global travel volumes in 2024 return to pre-COVID-19 levels.
• 2040 projection: 2.4 billion international trips globally; middle-class travelers will dominate.
• Top destinations shift: Spain, France, USA, China, Italy/Mexico expected to attract 20% of inbound trips (down from 30% in 2019).
• Rising stars: Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Indonesia forecast to enter the global top 15 destination markets.

Geographic shifts

• Emerging regions boom: Inbound growth strongest in Southeast Asia, the Novel Middle East, the Caribbean, and Africa.
• Source markets evolve: Pakistan, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia emerge as top outbound markets.
• Europe & APAC remain dominant, each accounting for ~75% of travel flows.

Traveler segments (4 patterns)

1. Newcomers (e.g., India, China): Young, growing middle class, cautious spenders, short-haul trips.
2. Amateurs (e.g., US, Russia): Emerging, higher-income travelers; mix of long/short haul.
3. Experienced (e.g., Spain, Italy): Older, consistent travelers; moderate spenders.
4. Super-Experienced (e.g., UK, Germany): High frequency, mature travelers, but still growing.

For businesses: Strategic shifts needed

• Markets: Embrace digital travel flows, engage diverse cultures (esp. from India), and highlight sustainability.
• Business models: Prioritize flexibility, hyper-personalization (AI-driven), and strategic partnerships.
• Mechanics: Use AI for demand forecasting, adopt new workforce strategies, explore new revenue models like subscriptions.

Disruptive forces ahead

• Tech innovation: AI, real-time translation, Web3, VR changing how people travel and plan.
• Demographic shifts: More inclusive, aging, and diverse traveler profiles.
• Cultural transformation: Travel seen as a path to purpose, wellness, and identity.
• Environmental concerns: Climate resilience and ethical tourism become non-negotiable.
• Geopolitics & instability: Impacting safety, mobility, and traveler choices.

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