BCD forecasts firm hotel rate growth as shifting demand reshapes 2026 pricing

Stronger corporate and group demand contrasts with softening leisure, driving uneven ADR inflation

BCD Travel’s 2026 outlook points to solid global hotel rate growth, shaped largely by diverging demand patterns across segments and regions. While leisure demand is softening in several key markets—especially the U.S.—corporate travel, group events, and large-scale meetings continue to apply upward pressure on upscale and luxury rates. As a result, hotel ADRs are set to rise more sharply than airfares, with notable regional variations. Overall, hotels face a year defined by demand polarization: softer at the bottom end, stronger at the top.

Key takeaways

• Global hotel ADRs show meaningful inflation: Average daily rates are expected to rise 4.9 percent worldwide, far outpacing projected airfare increases.
• Premium segments remain strong: Upscale, upper-upscale, and luxury properties continue benefiting from robust corporate, group, and event-driven demand.
• Leisure softness in the U.S. dampens growth: U.S. hotel ADR is projected to rise only 2 percent as cost-sensitive leisure travelers reduce spending, especially in lower-tier segments.
• Middle East and Latin America lead ADR growth: These regions are set for significant rate increases—8.2 percent and 6.4 percent respectively—supported by resilient demand.
• Moderate growth in Europe, Africa, and Asia: These markets track close to the global average as demand remains steady but not overheated.
• Rates in North America and Southwest Pacific lag: Growth of 2.2 percent and 2.6 percent reflects cooling demand dynamics compared with faster-growing global regions.
• Demand polarization intensifies: Hotels at the higher end gain pricing power from business travel and events, while economy and midscale rely on increasingly price-conscious leisure travelers.

Download the report at BCD Travel