Cautious optimism shapes global business travel outlook for 2026

Stable demand expectations collide with cost pressure, border friction, and operational constraints

Global business travel professionals are entering 2026 with measured confidence, expecting stable to modestly rising spending, trip volumes, and revenue. At the same time, affordability, traveler safety, and tightening cross-border requirements—especially for travel to the U.S.—are emerging as meaningful constraints. The latest GBTA poll shows an industry supported by demand fundamentals but increasingly shaped by external pressures and operational complexity. The year ahead is likely to be defined less by recovery momentum and more by careful trade-offs and risk management.

Key takeaways

• Moderate confidence, weaker than last year: A majority of respondents remain optimistic, but confidence has declined compared to expectations entering 2025, reflecting trade, economic, and regulatory uncertainty.
• Business travel spending expected to hold or rise: Most corporate buyers anticipate 2026 travel budgets to remain stable or increase, with only a small minority expecting cuts, signaling continued commitment to in-person travel.
• Trip volumes and traveler counts grow slowly: Travel activity is expected to increase modestly or stay flat, with limited acceleration and regional differences, particularly softer expectations in parts of EMEA.
• Revenue upside for suppliers and TMCs, with caution: Many suppliers and travel management companies expect revenue growth, though North America shows more conservative expectations and cost discipline.
• Affordability and safety dominate buyer concerns: Rising prices, budget pressure, traveler safety, and balancing cost control with employee satisfaction are seen as the most significant challenges for 2026.
• Cross-border friction threatens U.S. travel demand: Proposed ESTA changes are raising serious concerns about privacy, predictability, and employee willingness to travel, potentially shifting meetings and trips away from the U.S.
• AI viewed as an efficiency tool, not a disruptor yet: Industry stakeholders see AI primarily improving analytics, pricing, and reporting, with most expecting incremental automation rather than transformational change in the near term.

Source: GBTA

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