How much more can the U.S. travel industry take?

Political friction, border barriers, and rising costs are driving away foreign visitors, costing billions and raising doubts about whether the World Cup can reverse the trend

The United States is experiencing a notable decline in international tourism, even as domestic travel remains strong. New fees, visa hurdles, border uncertainty, and tougher rhetoric have reduced confidence among foreign visitors, leading to fewer arrivals and lower spending. Industry data shows millions fewer international trips compared with last year, with Canada and key European markets among the sharpest declines. While major events in 2026 offer hope, the near-term outlook highlights structural risks to the U.S. travel economy.

Key takeaways

• International arrivals are falling: The U.S. is projected to see millions fewer foreign visits this year, reversing the expected post-pandemic recovery and marking a rare downturn among major destinations.
• Canada has pulled back sharply: Canadian travel to the U.S. has declined far more than other markets, significantly affecting border states and seasonal destinations.
• Policy and perception matter: Visa delays, new fees, expanded travel restrictions, and a less welcoming stance are cited as primary deterrents by industry experts and travelers.
• Domestic travel cannot fully offset losses: Although Americans are traveling more at home, international visitors stay longer and spend more, leaving a meaningful revenue gap.
• Economic impact is widespread: Reduced foreign spending is hurting hotels, tours, retail, and small businesses, with some regions reporting double-digit sales declines.
• Global competition is intensifying: While the U.S. struggles, countries like Britain, Japan, and Greece are posting strong growth, signaling a shift in competitive momentum.
• Major events offer temporary relief: The 2026 World Cup and the U.S. semiquincentennial could boost visits and room revenue, but benefits may be uneven and short-lived.
• Longer-term risks are emerging: Industry groups such as U.S. Travel Association and analysts at Tourism Economics warn that continued erosion could weaken the U.S. position in the global tourism market, even as the World Travel & Tourism Council projects stronger growth elsewhere.

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