The U.S. hotel industry’s cautious outlook

Why optimism around major events is tempered by weak performance signals

The hotel industry entered early 2026 with a tone of cautious optimism, as reflected in sentiment from the ALIS conference, but that optimism lacks strong conviction. Analysts note a disconnect between generally positive rhetoric and weaker lodging stock performance, alongside mixed macroeconomic signals. While upcoming demand drivers like the FIFA World Cup support longer-term confidence, near-term operating data points to softness, particularly in group business. At the same time, deal activity, brand expansions, and portfolio reshuffling continue across the U.S. market.

Key takeaways

• Cautiously optimistic sentiment: Industry leaders at ALIS expressed guarded confidence, but major banks observed hesitation and a lack of firm conviction behind the positive tone.
• Weak near-term performance indicators: U.S. lodging RevPAR declined 1.8%, with group RevPAR down 6.5%, reinforcing concerns about short-term demand softness.
• Disconnect between public and private owners: Publicly traded hotel companies appear more optimistic than private owners and operators, who show a wider range of sentiment from cautious to negative.
• Capital activity remains active: Despite uncertainty, hotel sales, refinancings, and portfolio repositioning continue, including conversions to residential use and large-scale asset dispositions.
• Ongoing development and brand growth: Multiple new hotel openings, renovations, and brand affiliations signal continued long-term confidence in select markets and segments.
• Legal and corporate tensions persist: High-profile legal disputes within major management companies add an element of uncertainty to the operational landscape.

Source: Skift

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