U.S. lodging outlook points to cautious growth amid structural shifts
Moderate RevPAR gains in 2026 reflect a recalibration shaped by demand divergence, supply return, and AI-driven change
The PwC Hospitality Directions report forecasts modest RevPAR growth for the U.S. lodging industry in 2026 as the market adjusts after several years of volatility. PwC expects RevPAR to rise by 0.9%, with average occupancy reaching 62%, while inflation, new supply, and evolving travel behavior continue to weigh on performance. Demand is increasingly split between resilient leisure travel and slower-recovering corporate and international segments. At the same time, stabilizing performance may create selective investment opportunities for well-capitalized buyers.
Key takeaways
- Moderate RevPAR growth: PwC projects a 0.9% increase in RevPAR in 2026, signaling stabilization rather than a return to strong post-pandemic growth.
- Occupancy remains constrained: Average occupancy is expected to reach 62%, reflecting ongoing pressure from both demand softness and rising supply.
- Diverging demand patterns: Leisure travel continues to grow, particularly in warmer and secondary markets, while corporate and inbound international travel recover more slowly.
- Supply growth resumes: Hotel development is picking up as paused pandemic-era projects restart, especially in high-growth secondary markets.
- Supply-demand imbalance risks: In some markets and segments, new supply may outpace demand, putting further pressure on occupancy and pricing power.
- AI reshapes operations and behavior: Artificial intelligence is identified as a transformative force influencing traveler behavior and hotel operating models.
- Opportunities for dealmakers: With RevPAR stabilizing, PwC sees potential acquisition opportunities for investors with strong balance sheets and long-term strategies.
Source: PwC US Hospitality Directions
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