Morgan Stanley: Agentic AI unlikely to disrupt Booking.com

Analysts argue AI-driven travel discovery could reinforce OTAs’ central role in distribution

Morgan Stanley argues that emerging agentic AI technologies are unlikely to weaken Booking Holdings’ position in the online travel ecosystem. Instead, AI tools may redirect travel discovery toward online travel agency platforms while leaving transactions, customer relationships, and data ownership largely with established OTAs. The analysis suggests that concerns about AI-driven disruption may be overstated, positioning major OTAs to remain central players in travel distribution.

Key takeaways

• AI may strengthen OTA traffic: Early agentic AI tools appear more likely to drive users toward OTA platforms for booking rather than replacing them with direct in-AI transactions.
• Merchant-of-record advantage: Technology companies such as Google and Meta remain cautious about handling payments and customer service, preserving OTAs’ role as transaction intermediaries.
• Data ownership remains critical: OTAs’ ability to capture traveler data and manage customer relationships supports their long-term competitive position.
• Booking Holdings retains market leadership: Analysts highlight the company’s long execution track record and continued importance as a key travel distribution driver.
• Investor sentiment improving: Morgan Stanley upgraded Booking Holdings’ outlook, suggesting AI disruption fears have created potential investment opportunity in the sector.

Source: Seeking Alpha

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