U.S. RevPAR growth expected to increase in the second half of 2024

CBRE expects RevPAR growth to improve in the second half of 2024 after a weaker-than-expected first quarter

CBRE's latest forecast projects RevPAR growth of 2.0 percent in 2024, down from 3.0 percent estimated in February 2024. RevPAR is now expected to grow 3.0 percent for the remainder of the year, driven by international tourists, holiday travel and limited supply growth.

Key takeaways

Economic outlook: CBRE forecasts GDP growth of 2.3 percent and average inflation of 3.2 percent in 2024. Lodging performance is closely tied to the economy, with a strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth;

Record RevPAR: CBRE is optimistic that RevPAR will reach a nominal record of $101.20 this year, representing 115 percent of pre-pandemic levels in 2019. This projection is based on average daily rate (ADR) growth of 1.7 percent and occupancy growth of 0.2 percent;

Supply growth: CBRE expects limited supply growth in the medium term due to high financing and construction costs. Supply growth is projected to be just under 1 percent in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.9 percent over the next three years.

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