Five online travel themes for 2026 from Bank of America
How structural tech shifts and cyclical demand set the stage for industry transformation
Bank of America’s 2026 thematic outlook for online travel agencies (OTAs) identifies five key trends shaping the sector’s evolution in the year ahead, anchored by technological and demand dynamics. At the forefront is the rise of agentic AI, which could fundamentally change how travellers plan and book trips. Alongside this structural shift, the outlook considers competitive pressures, marketing leverage among major platforms, and a backdrop of improving travel demand in 2026. The themes highlight both opportunities and risks for OTAs as they navigate changing consumer behaviour and technology-driven disruption.
Key takeaways
- Emergence of agentic AI: Bank of America highlights agentic AI as the most significant theme, with tools that can plan and book travel end-to-end posing a challenge to traditional search-and-click models.
- Shift in competitive landscape: Both large tech platforms and established OTAs are expected to roll out AI booking capabilities in 2026, intensifying competition and risking disintermediation of traditional channels.
- Need for proprietary advantages: To defend direct traffic, OTAs will need to leverage proprietary supply, loyalty programs, and brand strength as competition shifts toward what Bank of America describes as “Search 2.0.”
- Cyclical demand support: The report anticipates an easier U.S. travel demand backdrop in the first half of 2026, helped by favourable comparisons to 2025 and a modest lift from events like the FIFA World Cup.
- Platform-specific opportunities: Different players are expected to benefit from distinct strengths — from marketing leverage at Booking to efficiency gains at Expedia and stable margins at Airbnb.
Source: Bank of America
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